The difference between births and deaths, which determines the natural increase of the population, is narrowing year after year by announcing that the number of deaths in Albania is far higher than births. This would lead the country’s declining population without return, without considering the phenomenon of immigration.
During 2018 the population natural growth was 7130 people at the lowest level since at least 1948, a few years after the end of World War II according to INSTAT data. But the earliest but not grouped data from year to year show that Albania has the population natural increase at the lowest level since 1923, as the population growth during the years 1923-1945 according to official data were on the average over 18,000 people per year.
During 2018, 28,934 babies were born, dropping by 6,3% compared to the previous year. For the first time, the number of infants born fell below 30,000. The number of deaths in 2018 was 21,804, with a decline of 1.9% compared to the previous year. Natural growth has deteriorated as the birth rate fall has been higher than that of deaths.
In 1990, the first year of transition, natural population growth was nearly 64 thousand people, or about 5300 children a month. 28 years later, this indicator has dropped 9 times to only 594 people per month.
The number of declining marriages and the fertility index show that the number of births will decline even further in the future. In Albania almost all births come to life through marriages. The number of marriages in 2017 was 11 percent lower in 2010. But many of the marriages occur with immigrants who after getting married in Albania later choose to leave the country. On the other hand, fertility was 6.8 births per woman in the 1960s; this ratio fell to 1.48 children for 2017. This level is lower than the EU fertility average, for 2016 was 1.6.
As the number of births is declining rapidly, the number of deaths has been stabilized at around 2 to 22 thousand a year. But population aging will greatly change this upward trend in the number of deaths even though life expectancy is rising.
Demographers report that the decline in the number of births is a dangerous element for the decline of the population and irreversible.