Covid-19 unemployment is fully recovered by 2021, according to government forecasts

The Albanian government was optimistic about reducing unemployment created by the Covid-19 pandemic, while the latest forecasts from the Ministry of Finance show that next year all the effects given to employment will disappear.
According to the official projections of the Ministry of Finance updated in the revised macroeconomic indicators, unemployment this year is expected to reach 13.8% from 12.9% in 2019.
But for next year, the unemployment rate is expected to reach 10.9% at a better level than before the crisis. In the first quarter unemployment was 11.4%.
For the years 2021 and 2023, a further decline of the indicator is expected, respectively, at 9.4 and 9%. The decline in unemployment in the coming years more than the supply coming from the labor market, is expected to be caused by demographic developments in the country.
Albania next year enters the cycle of rapid aging of the population, and consequently begins the shrinking of the labor force. The contraction of the labor force, combined with a high emigration, will lead to a decrease in the unemployment trend, which nevertheless remains at higher levels than in Europe.
Low labor productivity has caused the population to move to other countries where earnings from work for the same profession are higher than in Albania. This has been most evident for professions such as medicine, IT and other low-skilled professions.
The supply of work has currently dropped dramatically in all sectors, as a result of the negative effects that the Covid-19 pandemic had on the economy everywhere. The first pessimistic data come from the National Employment Office, where there are currently only 272 job offers, while the annual average of offers from businesses in the last three years by the government was 35-40 thousand jobs per year.
Of the 272 offers, the majority, about 90%, are for low-skilled jobs, such as manual workers, cleaners, tailors and the fisheries sector.
Most offers target people with 8-9 years of education. Of the available offers most of them are concentrated in the central part of the country. Businesses from Durrës, Lushnja and Elbasan dominate some of these offers.
The data show that they have been withdrawn from job offers, call center businesses and tailoring and also service units like bars and restaurants. These sectors were also the largest employment providers in the last five years. Labor market intermediation by the National Employment Offices marked an increase in recent years as a result of reforms initiated by donors in this structure. In 2018 and 2019, businesses offered 40,000 vacancies each year.
According to data from the Labor Force Survey, in the first quarter of the year, about 17 thousand people lost their jobs due to blocking measures in the economy. Employees in the services, transport and trade sectors were most affected.
According to data from the General Directorate of Taxes, during the period of isolation about 60 thousand people had fled the insurance scheme, while analysts suggest that over 100 thousand people will lose their jobs due to the effects of the pandemic.

/Klara Ruci/

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