The Bank of Albania predicted a day ago that the country's economy will grow in the second quarter of this year at faster rates than in the first. In the previous quarter this increase, according to official data was 5.5%, from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2020. An indicator that was not predicted as such by any institution that monitors and oversees the Albanian economy.
The International Monetary Fund, as a very conservative institution in global forecasts, did not approach this indicator.
But what are the factors that optimize the Albanian economy so much, which continues to remain in the conditions of the pandemic crisis?
Analysts list some of them, which are promoting positive dynamics of economic activity in the country.
According to Bank of Albania experts, the increase in exports and imports, citizen movements and fiscal statistics support this assessment. The Bank bases its expectations on the strong growth of construction permits, also supported by the reconstruction effect. In the first quarter of 2021, economic growth was 5.5%.
The Bank argued that the expansion in construction is estimated to have reflected a higher volume in three main categories: new construction, reconstruction and engineering works.
According to this authority, the new economic and geopolitical conditions created by the pandemic could become a source of opportunity for the Albanian economy, if business, interest groups and the government can seize these opportunities without wasting time.
The International Monetary Fund has increased the optimism that the Albanian economy will reach the level of pre-crisis by 2021. No other international institution that monitors the Albanian economy has shown such optimism for the economic performance of the country. Even the World Bank, the European Commission or even the Bank for Reconstruction and Development have postponed until 2023 the achievement of the indicators of 2019.
In the data published in the Global Economic Outlook in April, the IMF predicts that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at current prices in 2020 will reach about 17.1 billion ALL, exceeding the pre-pandemic level.
The Albanians themselves seem to be more realistic in their predictions. The experts of the Ministry of Finance have drafted three scenarios for the economic performance of the country until 2025, predicting what will happen if the country performs better or worse than the basic expectations.